Finland faces Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Malta in their final three matches, and with just a three-point gap separating them from the top two World Cup qualifying spots, this is an absolute must-win game.

There are three key factors that could decide the outcome in Finland’s favor:

1. Home form

Finland tends to perform much better on home soil. While their win rate isn’t outstanding overall, they’ve claimed four victories in their last ten home matches and have handled teams of Lithuania’s level comfortably beating Estonia 2-1, Northern Ireland 4-0, Poland 2-1, and San Marino 6-0.

2. Lithuania’s key absence

Armandas Kučys, Lithuania’s best player and top scorer, who found the net in their 2-2 draw earlier this year, is injured and will miss the remaining three matches. His absence is a major blow to Lithuania’s attacking potential.

3. Motivation and circumstances

Finland are in a strong position to fight for qualification, while Lithuania’s chances are slim they would need to win all three matches, including against Poland and the Netherlands, which seems highly unlikely.